Average life expectancy is set to increase in many of the countries by 2030 and will be exceeding 90 years in South Korea, according to new research.
This study which is led by scientists from the Imperial College London with the collaboration with World Health Organization has analyzed long term data over mortality and longevity trends.
They have predicted that how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialized countries by means of 2030.
Nations in their study included both high-income countries like USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia and even emerging economies like Poland, Mexico and the Czech Republic.
Life Expectancy of Various Nations:
Study is published in The Lancet and is funded by the UK Medical Research Council which has revealed all the nations in their study to expect to see an increase in life expectancy by 2030.
Results even found that South Koreans may have highest life expectancy in the world by 2030.
Team has calculated life expectancy during birth and has predicted that a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will be expected to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for the case of South Korean men will be 84.1 years.
Researchers has even calculated about how long a 65 year old person may expect to live in 2030.
Results revealed that average 65 year old women in South Korea in 2030 may live an additional of 27.5 years.
Scientists has thought once that life expectancy of over 90 is not possible as explained by Professor Majid Ezzati who is a lead researcher from the School of Public Health at Imperial.
He says, “We repeatedly hear that improvements in human longevity are about to come to an end. Many people used to believe that 90 years is the upper limit for life expectancy, but this research suggests we will break the 90 year barrier. I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the upper limit of life expectancy if there even is one.”
Professor Ezzati has explained that South Korea’s high life expectancy may be due to number of factors which includes good nutrition in childhood, lower blood pressure, higher levels of smoking, good access to healthcare and up taking of newer medical knowledge and technologies.
Effects over Life Expectancy:
French women and Swiss men were predicted to be having highest life expectancies at birth in Europe in 2030. They are having an average life expectancy of 88.6 years for the case of French women and about 84 years for Swiss men.
Results even revealed that USA is likely to have lowest life expectancy at birth in 2030 among the high income countries.
Nation’s average life expectancy at birth for men and women in 2030 will be similar to that of the middle income countries like Croatia and Mexico.
Research team says that this may be due to a number of factors which include lack of universal healthcare.
It even includes highest child and maternal mortality rate, homicide rate and obesity among the high-income countries.
UK’s average life expectancy at birth for women will be 85.3 years in 2030. It is placing them at 21st over the table of 35 countries.
Average life expectancy of UK man will be 82.5 years in 2030. It is placing them at 14th in the table of 35 countries.
Team even predicted a 35 year old UK man in 2030 which could expect to live an additional of 20.9 years.
As compared to that a 65 year old women in UK could expect to live an additional of 22.7 years. Research is even suggesting a gap in life expectancy between women and men is respectively closing.
Assessment of Life Expectancy:
Professor Ezzati explains, “Men traditionally had unhealthier lifestyles, and so shorter life expectancies. They smoked and drank more, and had more road traffic accidents and homicides. However as lifestyles become more similar between men and women, so does their longevity.”
Along with US other countries who may see only smaller increase in their life expectancy by 2030 included Japan, Sweden and Greece.
While Macedonia and Serbia were projected to have lower life expectancy at birth for women and men respectively in 2030.
It is calculated by means of assessing the age at which the people is dying across the whole population.
As for instance if a country has high childhood mortality rate, this will be making average national life expectancy much lower.
It is as would the country in which many of the young people are dyeing in injuries and violence.
Professor Colin Mathers, co-author from the World Health Organization explains, “The increase in average life expectancy in high income countries is due to the over 65s living longer than ever before. In middle income countries, the number of premature deaths i.e. people dying in their forties and fifties, will also decline by 2030.”
New method of Predicting Longevity:
Team has developed a newer method which will predict longevity which are similar to the methods which are used for weather forecasting and is taking into account numerous different models for forecasting mortality and life expectancy.
All of the predictions in the study is coming with some of the uncertainty range.
As for example there is 90 percent probability that life expectancy for South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86.7 years and there is 57 percent probability that it will be higher than 90 years.
Researchers has chosen 35 industrialized countries in their study as they all are having reliable data over deaths since atleast 1985. Team then used this data together with their newer methodology for predicting life expectancy by 2030.
Professor Ezzati noted that these results suggests that we need to think carefully about the needs of an ageing population.